NSW farmers, hay suppliers look interstate stock feed as El Niño looms, pastures still damaged by 2022 floods

Farmers and hay suppliers in northern New South Wales are looking interstate for stock feed as memories of the drought creep in. 

Max Wake's dairy in the NSW Hunter Valley flooded last year.

But the property is so dry now he's buying in hay at "astronomical" prices.

"We had to use our winter fodder reserves during summer because the pastures had been destroyed by floods," he said.

"We're not out of forage yet but we've had to buy hay and that hurts."

That hay is coming from South Australia and at a premium, as Australia teeters on the cusp of an El Niño.

"It was a matter of what you could get and where," Mr Wake said.

"I don't need it straight away but I will in August, and if I'd left it any longer I wouldn't have got it."

Mr Wake paid $600 per tonne for the hay alone, with freight and GST extra.

"It's extremely expensive and it makes you wonder if it's worth it … but I can't let my cows go hungry."

No crystal ball

While Mr Wake is replanting and recovering his pastures, 1.5 hours north, Rolanda Clout-Collins has been hand feeding cattle since January.

"Which is worrying as interest rates are going up, commodity prices are going up, but our selling price is going down for our cattle," she said.

In the past 12 months the cattle market's key price indicator has slipped from nearly $10 per kilogram to less than $6.

"It's a rollercoaster," Ms Clout-Collins said.

"During the good years you try to plan, you put strategies in place, you stock up on as much feed as you can — but at the end of the day, unless you've got a crystal ball, it's hard."

Local supplies depleted

With feed sources drying up, McDonald Brothers Transport in Tamworth have been busy moving hay across the Hunter, New England and even the North Coast.

Some loads have also been trucked to the Queensland border.

Scott McDonald owns the company and is also the president of the Australian Livestock and Rural Transporters Association.

He has had to source hay from interstate, with local supplies depleted.

"The actual volume of hay that was made [locally] was low — it was too wet in the Spring and then got too dry in the Summer," Mr McDonald said.

"Most of what we've got here has come from South Australia and Victoria.

"There is a quite a supply of hay down there, the problem is they also had a wet Spring … and so you have to be very careful as to the quality."

Mr McDonald expects there will not be locally grown hay until well into Spring.

El Niño still at alert level

Long-range weather forecaster Don White expects the Bureau of Meteorology will declare an El Niño "in a matter of weeks".

"It's likely to reach its peak in August and spring," he said.

"In past events, El Niños last at reasonable strength for six to nine months — so that could see it last for much of summer."

But he said there were "still glimmers of hope" for farmers.

"The saving grace at the moment is the sea surface temperatures in parts of the Coral Sea, Tasman Sea and Western Pacific haven't cooled down to the extent that we'd normally expect in an El Niño event," Mr White said.

"So if those waters' temperatures stay a little above average, then there's always potential for a bit more moisture to feed into eastern Australia at times.

"But if those temperatures cool off, we're definitely in for about six months of below average rainfall. It doesn't mean every month will be dry but it means that overall, the total rainfall for the next six months will be below average."

Source: Amelia Bernasconi and Lara Webster, ABC Rural